Water Treaty Remains Frozen Despite Ceasefire

The historic Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan will remain suspended despite Saturday’s announcement of a ceasefire between the nuclear-armed neighbors, according to government sources from both countries, raising concerns about long-term water security and regional stability in South Asia.

The 1960 treaty, which has survived three wars and numerous military confrontations over the past six decades, was suspended by India on April 23 following a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir that India blamed on Pakistan-backed militants – an allegation Pakistan has denied.

Treaty Suspension Outlasts Military De-escalation

“Indus Waters Treaty was not really a part of (ceasefire) discussions,” a Pakistani water ministry source told Reuters. This position was corroborated by Indian government sources who confirmed there was “no change in stand” on the treaty despite the cessation of hostilities that had threatened to escalate into full-scale war.

The ceasefire agreement, brokered after intense diplomatic efforts including intervention by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, puts a pause on military operations but leaves in place numerous punitive measures, including trade suspensions and visa cancellations along with the treaty’s suspension.

Vital Water Resources at Stake

The Indus Waters Treaty, mediated by the World Bank, regulates the division of water from the Indus River and its tributaries between India and Pakistan, with India controlling the eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej) and Pakistan receiving rights to the western rivers (Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum). Overall, the agreement allocates approximately 80% of the water flow to Pakistan and 20% to India.

Pakistan’s agriculture sector is particularly vulnerable to disruptions in water flow, as the western rivers allocated under the treaty irrigate more than 16 million hectares of farmland, accounting for up to 80% of the country’s total agricultural irrigation, according to Center for Strategic and International Studies. The country’s predominantly agricultural economy could face devastating consequences from any prolonged interference with these water supplies.

Initial Actions Already Underway

India has begun taking tangible steps following the treaty’s suspension, including initiating a “reservoir flushing” process last week to remove sediment from hydroelectric projects on the western rivers. This operation, carried out by state-run NHPC Ltd and authorities in Jammu and Kashmir, represents the first concrete action by India outside the agreements governed by the treaty.

While India currently lacks the infrastructure for immediate large-scale water diversion, experts note that the cessation of information sharing required under the treaty could have serious immediate impacts. “By suspending the treaty, India can also cease data sharing, depriving Pakistan of flood warnings, for example, prospectively hampering the nation’s water management and potentially imperiling Pakistani lives and livelihoods,” according to Al Jazeera.

Legal and Diplomatic Challenges

Pakistan has vowed to pursue international legal action against India’s unilateral suspension of the treaty, with Minister of State for Law and Justice Aqeel Malik stating that Islamabad is exploring at least three different legal options. These include raising the issue with the World Bank (the treaty’s facilitator), taking action at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, or appealing to the International Court of Justice in the Hague.

The treaty notably contains no provision for unilateral suspension or termination, and includes clear dispute resolution mechanisms that Pakistan argues India has bypassed. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has declared any attempt to disrupt water flows as “an act of war” that would be “responded with full force.”

Regional Implications

The continued suspension of the treaty despite military de-escalation signals a fundamental shift in India’s approach to water diplomacy, potentially affecting its relationships with other neighbors. India’s demonstrated willingness to suspend a longstanding water agreement could raise concerns in Bangladesh and Nepal, which also share water resources with India.

Shuja Nawaz, distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, suggested that the Indus treaty would likely figure prominently in future diplomatic talks “after a decent interval, which allows both governments to claim credit for what they’ve achieved until now.” Water experts note that restored cooperation on transboundary water management will be essential for long-term stability in a region increasingly affected by climate change impacts on water resources.