Seventh-Seeded Warriors Enter Rockets Series as Favorites

In a rare playoff twist, the seventh-seeded Golden State Warriors enter their first-round series against the second-seeded Houston Rockets as betting favorites. This unusual circumstance highlights the dramatic impact of the Warriors’ midseason acquisition of Jimmy Butler and reflects lingering questions about the playoff-readiness of Houston’s young core as the series begins Sunday night at Toyota Center.

Despite finishing the regular season with identical 50-32 records, Houston secured the second seed through tiebreakers, while Golden State had to navigate the play-in tournament. However, the Warriors’ championship pedigree and late-season surge have established them as -190 favorites against the Rockets’ +160 odds, according to BetMGM.

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Butler Trade Transformed Warriors’ Season

Golden State’s emergence as favorites stems largely from their post-trade deadline transformation after acquiring Butler from Miami. Since his arrival, the Warriors have gone an impressive 24-7 with Butler in the lineup, including a dominant 23-5 record when pairing him with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.

“The Jimmy Butler trade saved their season, and maybe the twilight of the Steph-Draymond-Steve Kerr era,” notes Yahoo Sports. “He gave Kerr an offensive change-up, an alternative to the Steph-centric motion offense – a steady dose of high-efficiency isolation play capable of repeatedly generating good looks.”

This new dimension has particularly benefited Curry, who has averaged 27.9 points and 5.7 assists per game on .644 true shooting since the trade. The 37-year-old’s rejuvenation alongside Butler has transformed Golden State into a legitimate championship threat despite their lower seeding.

Houston’s Youth Movement Faces First Playoff Test

While the Warriors bring four-time champions Curry and Green, along with Butler’s extensive playoff experience, the Rockets feature a core of young talent making their postseason debuts. Though Houston has playoff-tested veterans in Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, and Steven Adams, their key contributors – Alperen Şengün, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith Jr. – have never experienced playoff intensity.

“It is a clear case of the upstarts trying to make sure the old guard goes away,” observes USA Today. “Even though they are the higher seed, the up-and-comers have a lot to prove.”

The Rockets’ regular-season success came through a physically imposing style under coach Ime Udoka, emphasizing defensive pressure, offensive rebounding, and free throw generation. Houston led the NBA in offensive rebounding rate and ranked fourth in defensive efficiency, establishing themselves as one of the league’s most physically demanding opponents.

Physical Defense vs. Championship Experience

The contrast in styles between these teams creates a fascinating tactical matchup. Houston’s defensive approach against Curry became evident in their April victory, where they limited the Warriors’ star to just three points on 1-for-10 shooting with four turnovers.

According to Yahoo Sports, this physical approach seemed to frustrate Curry, leading to a halftime exchange with Udoka. The Rockets coach later told The Athletic, “When people start complaining about foul calls or crying about physicality, you’ve done your job. That’s the first step in winning the battle.”

Golden State will counter by leveraging their small-ball approach and championship experience. Warriors coach Steve Kerr must find ways to exploit the Rockets’ aggressive defense on Curry, taking advantage of 4-on-3 opportunities and making Houston pay for overcommitting to perimeter pressure.

“Green must keep Şengün off the offensive glass – and stay out of foul trouble – and the wings have to gang-rebound to finish possessions,” explains Yahoo Sports. Golden State’s ability to neutralize Houston’s size advantage while maintaining their offensive efficiency will likely determine the series outcome.

Source: https://www.nba.com/news/2025-nba-playoffs-standings-and-bracket-updates

Season Series Suggests Competitive Matchup

While oddsmakers favor Golden State, the regular season series suggests a tightly contested battle. The Warriors won the five-game season series 3-2, though three of those meetings occurred before the Butler trade. The teams split their two post-trade matchups, with each securing one victory.

The Rockets’ April win demonstrated their formula for success: physical defense against Curry and relentless inside presence. Meanwhile, Golden State’s February victory highlighted their ability to overcome Houston’s size through superior ball movement and shooting.

Sports Illustrated emphasizes that Houston’s defensive switching and zone defense featuring Smith, Şengün, and Adams will be crucial: “Keeping up with Golden State is an extremely hard duty, so it will really test the Rockets’ ability to switch.”

As Sunday’s 9:30 p.m. ET tipoff approaches, this series offers a compelling narrative of youth versus experience, physical force versus skill, and regular-season surprise versus championship pedigree. Though the Warriors enter as favorites, Houston’s home-court advantage and physical style ensure this West matchup will be among the postseason’s most intriguing first-round battles.

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