Thunder’s Nine-Game Win Streak Looms Over Grizzlies Matchup

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the NBA playoffs as the top seed in the Western Conference and the league’s best regular-season record at 68-14. Their first-round opponent, the Memphis Grizzlies, face the daunting task of overcoming not just the Thunder’s dominant 2024-25 campaign but also a nine-game losing streak against OKC that dates back to the 2022-23 season.

As these teams prepare for Sunday’s series opener at Paycom Center, this lopsided recent history creates both a psychological hurdle for Memphis and a potential trap of overconfidence for Oklahoma City in what promises to be a star-studded matchup featuring MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Grizzlies dynamic guard Ja Morant.

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Thunder’s Defensive Formula Against Memphis

Oklahoma City’s defensive excellence holds the key to extending their dominance over Memphis. The Grizzlies boast the NBA’s highest-paced offense at 103.69, creating a significant portion of their scoring opportunities in transition. However, the Thunder’s league-best fast-break defense presents a formidable counter to this approach.

“If the Thunder’s identity holds up, it should pose issues for Memphis,” notes The Oklahoman. “The Grizzlies’ transition opportunities make up 24.1% of their possessions.”

Forcing Memphis to operate primarily in the half-court, where OKC’s tenacious perimeter defenders can better contain Morant’s playmaking, represents a critical strategic goal for the Thunder. Their ability to limit transition opportunities effectively cuts off a major aspect of the Grizzlies’ offensive identity.

This defensive alignment creates a fascinating contrast as the NBA’s fifth-fastest team (Oklahoma City) matches up with the league’s fastest (Memphis). The Thunder’s transition defense against the Grizzlies’ fast-break offense represents one of the series’ defining tactical battles.

Free Throw Disparity Could Prove Decisive

Despite their stellar record, the Thunder have shown vulnerability in one area that Memphis excels – drawing fouls and generating free throw opportunities. This discrepancy could become a series-defining factor if the Grizzlies can capitalize on it.

“The Grizzlies are elite at drawing fouls. The Thunder, as you might have heard, is not,” The Oklahoman explains. “Memphis ranks second in free throws attempted per game (23.3) and second in fouls drawn per game (20.3). The Thunder is 26th in free-throw attempts per game and 23rd in fouls drawn.”

This free throw imbalance gives Memphis a potential avenue to keep games close against the heavily favored Thunder. Oklahoma City’s disciplined approach to defense will be tested by Morant’s aggressive drives and Memphis’ overall physicality. The Thunder’s ability to defend without fouling will prove crucial to maintaining their dominance over the Grizzlies.

One silver lining for Oklahoma City: when they do get to the line, they convert at an elite rate. The Thunder lead the NBA in free throw percentage at 81.9%, making the most of their limited trips to the charity stripe.

Perimeter Advantage vs. Interior Challenge

While Oklahoma City swept the regular-season series against Memphis with four consecutive victories, the matchups revealed differing dynamics between the teams’ perimeter and interior personnel. The Thunder’s advantage appears most pronounced on the wing, particularly with Memphis missing defensive specialist Jaylen Wells due to a wrist injury.

“Who takes over the defensive duty on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains to be seen, but all of the Thunder’s perimeter players could see even more opportunities than they had in the four games that OKC swept against Memphis during the regular season,” The Oklahoman reports.

Inside, the matchup becomes more competitive. Memphis counters Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein with Jaren Jackson Jr. and rookie sensation Zach Edey. While Hartenstein dominated the glass with 14 rebounds in a February meeting, the interior battle represents Memphis’ best chance to establish an advantage.

This contrast creates a clear strategic focus for both teams – Oklahoma City will look to leverage their perimeter superiority, while Memphis will try to exploit potential advantages in the paint and on the boards.

Source: https://www.nba.com/news/2025-nba-playoffs-standings-and-bracket-updates

Turnover Battle Could Seal Memphis’ Fate

Perhaps no statistical category better illustrates why the Thunder have dominated the Grizzlies than turnovers. Memphis averages the third-most turnovers per game at 15.7, creating a significant vulnerability against an Oklahoma City team that led the NBA in turnovers forced at 17 per game.

“If the Thunder can capitalize on the Grizzlies’ turnovers, it’ll be in a good position to win this series,” according to The Oklahoman. Oklahoma City’s collection of defensive playmakers – from Gilgeous-Alexander to Jalen Williams to Alex Caruso – excels at disrupting passing lanes and generating transition opportunities off opponent mistakes.

USA Today notes that for Memphis to have any chance at pulling the upset, they’ll need “a renewed commitment to defending in addition to an All-NBA performance from Ja Morant and stellar shooting from the perimeter.”

As Sunday’s series opener approaches, the Thunder enter as overwhelming favorites to advance, but playoff intensity often reveals new dimensions to familiar matchups. Memphis’ ability to overcome their nine-game losing streak against Oklahoma City remains one of the first round’s most compelling storylines.

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