NOAA Faces Unprecedented Budget Cuts Threatening US Weather Forecasting

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is bracing for a potential 27% reduction in its annual budget, raising alarm among scientists and meteorologists about America’s ability to predict extreme weather events. Internal budget documents reveal plans to eliminate the agency’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) entirely, crippling decades of institutional expertise essential for forecasting hurricanes, droughts, and other severe weather phenomena.

Experts warn that dismantling this critical scientific infrastructure could set American weather prediction capabilities back nearly seven decades, just as climate-related disasters are becoming increasingly frequent and costly.

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Critical Research Centers on Chopping Block

“Scientifically, obliterating OAR would send the United States back to the 1950s,” warned Craig McLean, who retired as OAR’s director in 2022, in comments to Science. The proposed cuts would affect all ten NOAA research laboratories nationwide, including the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in New Jersey, where modern weather and climate modeling originated.

The administration’s budget proposal would “eliminate all funding for climate, weather, and ocean laboratories and cooperative institutes,” according to documents reviewed by multiple news outlets. These institutes, many housed at universities across the country, represent the backbone of America’s weather forecasting capabilities.

The potential cuts come despite compelling evidence of NOAA’s economic value. A 2024 analysis by the American Meteorological Society found that NOAA’s weather forecasts generate more than $73 in savings for every dollar invested in them, according to ProPublica, making them one of the government’s most cost-effective programs.

Economic Consequences Would Ripple Through Multiple Sectors

Agriculture stands to lose substantially from degraded forecasting capabilities. NOAA’s seasonal and long-range precipitation outlooks help farmers make critical planting decisions, with El Niño forecasts alone boosting the U.S. agricultural economy by an estimated $300 million annually.

“NOAA was already stretched thin and understaffed,” noted Andy Hazelton, a hurricane expert quoted by NPR. “It’s going to go from stretched thin to decimated.”

The shipping industry relies on NOAA forecasts for navigation and storm avoidance. Insurance companies use NOAA climate data to model risk and set premiums for property coverage. Even the aviation sector depends on NOAA models for the next generation of air traffic management systems being developed by the Federal Aviation Administration.

Congressional Opposition Forming Against Proposed Cuts

Representative Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), the ranking member on the House Science Committee, has emerged as a vocal critic of the proposed cuts, calling them “both outrageous and dangerous.”

“This administration’s hostility towards research and rejection of climate science will have the consequence of eviscerating the weather forecasting capabilities that this plan claims to preserve,” Lofgren stated in comments to Science.

The budget proposal aligns with positions outlined in Project 2025, a conservative policy blueprint that described NOAA as “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry” and called for the agency to “be broken up and downsized.”

International Scientific Standing at Risk

As other nations expand their investment in weather and climate research capabilities, experts worry the United States could surrender its long-standing leadership position in earth sciences if the proposed cuts are implemented.

The budget cuts would eliminate not only federal research positions but also approximately $70 million in annual competitive climate research grants to academic scientists, potentially driving American scientific talent overseas.

“These proposed cuts to NOAA would jeopardize our ability to protect Americans from the increasingly extreme weather we’re experiencing,” cautioned Mary Glackin, former NOAA Deputy Undersecretary who served under multiple administrations.

With the budget proposal still under review, scientific organizations and emergency management agencies are mobilizing to communicate NOAA’s critical role in protecting American lives and property through accurate weather prediction and climate monitoring.

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