NBA Playoff Bracket Features Warriors-Rockets Matchup Shocker

The 2025 NBA playoff bracket is officially set with first-round action tipping off this weekend, featuring several compelling matchups that have analysts and fans debating potential upsets. Most notably, the seventh-seeded Golden State Warriors enter their series against the second-seeded Houston Rockets as betting favorites, marking just the second time since 1988 that a seventh seed has been favored in a first-round series.

This reversal of expectations highlights the growing trend of regular season records becoming less predictive of playoff success. Eight first-round matchups spread across Saturday and Sunday will kick off what promises to be one of the most unpredictable postseasons in recent memory.

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Seventh Seed Warriors Defy Conventional Wisdom

Despite finishing five games behind the Rockets in the regular season standings, Golden State’s championship pedigree and midseason acquisition of Jimmy Butler have oddsmakers and analysts backing the Warriors to advance. The teams split their regular season series 2-2, though both rosters have undergone significant changes since their early matchups.

“Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. But I’ve yet to see this Rockets core win a seven-game series, and I’ve seen Steph and Draymond get a game on the road and eventually break a more athletic team,” explains Dan Devine of Yahoo Sports, who predicts a six-game Warriors victory.

This matchup represents a fascinating clash between Houston’s youth and athleticism against Golden State’s experience and championship mettle. The Warriors’ acquisition of Butler at the trade deadline continues the recent trend of midseason moves significantly altering playoff trajectories, similar to the 2024 Mavericks and 2022 Celtics making NBA Finals runs after major deadline acquisitions.

Regular Season Becoming Less Predictive

NBA analyst John Hollinger notes in The Athletic that the league has become increasingly less “chalky” in recent postseasons. While historically only four teams without home-court advantage prevail in the average NBA postseason, the last five years have seen 26 such teams win series.

“Six teams won a playoff series without home-court advantage in 2024; in 2023, we had seven. Before that, we hadn’t had more than five since 1995,” Hollinger explains.

This trend suggests we could see multiple upsets in the upcoming weeks, particularly in matchups where regular season series didn’t favor the higher seed. In fact, six of the eight first-round matchups feature the higher seed failing to win the regular season series, historically a strong indicator of potential upsets.

Star-Studded Lakers-Wolves Series Draws Attention

The third-seeded Lakers facing the sixth-seeded Timberwolves stands out as another potential classic. This matchup features the playoff debut of the LeBron James-Luka Doncic pairing, with Minnesota seeking revenge after being eliminated by Doncic and the Mavericks in last year’s Western Conference Finals.

Six of seven Yahoo Sports experts pick the Lakers to advance, though Tom Haberstroh expresses uncertainty: “I don’t know what to expect from JJ Redick, Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves in their first foray together.”

Ben Rohrbach notes that “Luka Dončić owned the Timberwolves as a member of the Mavericks in last season’s Western Conference finals, and now he has LeBron James at his side. Together they can solve Minnesota’s defense. Barely.”

Source: https://www.nba.com/news/2025-nba-playoffs-standings-and-bracket-updates

East Features Clear Favorites, Potential Upsets

While the Western Conference bracket appears wide open, Eastern Conference predictions favor the higher seeds, with one notable exception. The Detroit Pistons, making their first playoff appearance since 2019, are seen as legitimate threats to upset the third-seeded New York Knicks.

“The Pistons have been every bit as good as the Knicks for four solid months now — better over the past couple!” notes Devine, highlighting Detroit’s remarkable transformation from last season’s basement-dwellers to playoff contenders.

Meanwhile, the powerhouse Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics are nearly unanimous picks to handle their first-round opponents. All seven Yahoo Sports analysts predict both teams will advance, with most forecasting relatively short series.

The fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers face the fifth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in a rematch of last year’s first-round series, with Milwaukee missing star guard Damian Lillard to start the series due to blood clot treatment. Four of seven experts favor the Pacers to advance, citing the Bucks’ injury concerns and overreliance on Giannis Antetokounmpo.

As Saturday’s four-game slate approaches, basketball fans can look forward to a potentially unpredictable postseason where regular season results may prove less relevant than momentum, health, and playoff experience. The NBA’s evolving landscape continues to challenge conventional wisdom about what truly matters when the stakes are highest.

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