Giannis Returns: Bucks Seek Revenge Against Pacers

The Milwaukee Bucks enter Game 1 of their NBA Playoff series against the Indiana Pacers with redemption on their minds. After being eliminated by Indiana in last year’s postseason while missing superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, the fifth-seeded Bucks aim to flip the script in Saturday’s Eastern Conference showdown at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Milwaukee will have their “Greek Freak” available this time around, though they’ll be without point guard Damian Lillard, who remains sidelined after undergoing treatment for a blood clot. Despite Lillard’s absence, oddsmakers have set the Bucks as just 5.5-point underdogs, suggesting confidence in Antetokounmpo’s ability to keep things competitive.

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Hot Streak Meets Home Court Advantage

The Bucks enter the playoffs riding an impressive wave of momentum, having won eight consecutive games to close out the regular season. More importantly for bettors, Milwaukee covered the spread in seven of those contests, demonstrating their ability to exceed expectations.

“Milwaukee has been terrific for bettors as an underdog over the last several weeks,” notes SportsbookWire. “It has covered in 7 straight games as an underdog and is 16-11-1 ATS on the season when getting points.”

This impressive run includes a stretch where the Bucks went 10-4 straight up and 11-3 against the spread since losing Lillard in mid-March, suggesting they’ve adapted well to his absence. Three of those games were also played without Antetokounmpo, making the record even more remarkable.

Meanwhile, Indiana closed out their regular season on a positive note as well, winning seven of their final eight games. However, their performance against the spread has been less impressive, covering in only three of those contests.

Giannis: The Facilitator Factor

With Lillard sidelined, Antetokounmpo has expanded his role beyond scoring and rebounding, becoming Milwaukee’s primary ball-handler and facilitator. In 16 games without Lillard this season, the Greek superstar has averaged an impressive 7.9 assists per game.

“He’s hit the 10-assist mark in five of his last six games, which includes a career-high 20 dimes versus Philadelphia and a 15-assist performance against the Pistons,” according to Covers.com. This playmaking dimension adds another element to Antetokounmpo’s already formidable game.

The Pacers’ style of play may further enhance Giannis’ assist opportunities. Indiana employs the seventh-fastest pace in the NBA, creating more possessions and potential scoring chances. Additionally, their interior defense ranks among the league’s worst, sitting 28th in points allowed in the paint and rebounding rate – areas where Antetokounmpo routinely dominates.

Historical Context and Betting Trends

Regular season results suggest Milwaukee may have Indiana’s number, with the Bucks winning three of four meetings between the teams this season. However, playoff basketball often follows different patterns than regular season matchups.

The betting markets have also identified some interesting trends. The total for Game 1 is set at 224.5 points, reflecting both teams’ tendency to play high-scoring games. Indiana went 43-36-3 to the Over this season, while Milwaukee finished 43-38-1 to the Over, suggesting Saturday’s contest could feature plenty of scoring.

Another factor worth noting is Indiana’s mediocre performance at home this season. The Pacers posted just a 17-21-3 record against the spread at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, potentially diminishing their home-court advantage.

Source: https://www.nba.com/news/2025-nba-playoffs-standings-and-bracket-updates

What Experts Are Saying

Industry analysts remain divided on the game’s outcome. While most expect Indiana to secure a victory at home, the consensus view is that Milwaukee has the tools to keep the game competitive.

“With Giannis dominating both areas, the Bucks are built to take advantage of those flaws and cover this number,” writes an analyst at Covers.com, referring to Indiana’s defensive weaknesses.

SportsbookWire concurs with this assessment, noting that while the Pacers should “come out on top at home,” the spread appears to be inflated. In their final prediction, they recommend backing the Bucks to cover the 5.5-point spread.

As the series begins, basketball fans and bettors alike will watch closely to see if Antetokounmpo’s presence can indeed change the outcome from last year’s playoff meeting between these Central Division rivals.

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