Bitcoin Whales Absorb 300% of New Supply, $100K Target Emerges

Bitcoin’s largest holders are accumulating the cryptocurrency at unprecedented rates, absorbing more than three times the newly mined supply and potentially setting the stage for a significant price surge toward $100,000, according to recent on-chain data. This aggressive accumulation comes despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and signals growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin “whales” and “sharks” (addresses holding between 100-1,000+ BTC) are currently purchasing BTC at the fastest rate in the cryptocurrency’s history, according to Cointelegraph. Simultaneously, exchange balances have plummeted to historic lows, with yearly absorption rates falling below -200% as outflows accelerate.

This dramatic shift in buying behavior coincides with Bitcoin testing crucial resistance levels around $85,300 at the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. Market technicians note that Bitcoin has recently broken out of a multi-month falling wedge pattern – a technical formation that typically resolves with significant upward price movement.

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Institutions Drive Unprecedented Accumulation

The largest Bitcoin holders, addresses controlling over 10,000 BTC, remain in strong accumulation territory with their Trend Accumulation Score holding around 0.7 as of April 18. This metric, which quantifies cohort behavior on a scale from distribution (0) to accumulation (1), suggests robust confidence among Bitcoin’s wealthiest participants.

Smaller investor cohorts that had been selling earlier in the year are now shifting toward neutral positions. Groups holding between 1-100 BTC and 10-100 BTC have seen their accumulation scores rise to approximately 0.5, indicating a potential end to distribution activities that previously applied selling pressure to the market.

On-chain analysts compare the current whale behavior to patterns observed before Bitcoin’s 2020 bull run, which eventually led to all-time highs. This accumulation is occurring despite broader market uncertainties, including tensions resulting from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies that have created anxiety across financial markets.

Technical Breakout Points to $100K Target

Bitcoin’s recent break above a falling wedge pattern has technical analysts targeting significant upside potential. According to traditional technical analysis methodologies, the upside target for such a pattern is calculated by measuring the formation’s maximum height and adding it to the breakout point – suggesting a potential rise to over $101,570 by May.

Market analyst Scott Melker highlighted that while the 200-day moving average remains overhead as resistance, the key level to watch is $88,804. “The horizontal level at $88,804 is still the key barrier to flip market structure and print a higher high,” Melker noted. Conversely, a rejection from current resistance levels could push prices back toward support near $80,000.

The technical outlook gains additional support from the extreme reduction in Bitcoin’s available supply on exchanges. As institutional adoption increases, particularly following last year’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, more BTC is moving to long-term storage, creating potential supply shortages that could accelerate price movement during periods of strong demand.

Warning Signs of Imminent Volatility

Despite the bullish accumulation patterns and technical breakout, investors should prepare for potential turbulence ahead. CoinDesk reports that approximately 170,000 BTC (worth over $14 billion) have recently moved from wallets held for three to six months – a cohort whose behavior typically signals major market turning points.

CryptoQuant analysts warn that this significant movement of mid-term holdings often precedes periods of heightened volatility. Historical patterns show similar behavior before both major price surges and corrections, including during 2021’s bull run and the subsequent 2022 market capitulation.

While Bitcoin has maintained a relatively tight trading range between $75,000 and $87,000 in recent months, these on-chain indicators suggest this consolidation phase may soon end. However, whether the resolution will be an explosive move toward $100,000 or a retest of lower support levels remains unclear.

For investors tracking Bitcoin’s next move, the confluence of unprecedented whale accumulation, diminishing exchange supply, and significant mid-term holder movement creates a compelling narrative for potential price action – though market participants should remain mindful of the heightened volatility that typically accompanies such conditions.

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