Bitcoin’s $52K Plunge Predicted as Trump’s Tariffs Bite
Bitcoin’s recent recovery above $83,000 may be short-lived as a prominent analyst predicts a potential crash to $52,000 in the coming months. The cryptocurrency market has been rocked by President Trump’s trade tariffs, creating uncertainty that could drive Bitcoin to its lowest level since September 2024.
Tracy Jin, Chief Operating Officer of crypto exchange MEXC, forecasts Bitcoin ending April in the $76,000-$78,000 range before potentially dropping to $52,000-$56,000 during summer 2025. This bearish outlook comes amid escalating trade tensions and shifting perceptions of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, according to analysis shared by Finance Magnates.
The cryptocurrency showed resilience after falling to a six-month low on Wednesday, April 9, recovering above $80,000 after President Trump paused trade tariffs on all countries except China. However, technical analysis suggests this rebound may be temporary.
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Double Top Spells Double Trouble
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified a concerning “double top” pattern forming on Bitcoin’s hourly chart. This technical formation, resembling the letter “M,” typically signals investor exhaustion and potential bearish reversal as traders book profits from an extended bull run.
“If the Bitcoin price fails to break the resistance around the $84,000 mark, the market leader could be gearing for another price breakdown,” Martinez noted in an April 11 post on X, referenced by TradingView News.
The $78,000 level represents a crucial support zone where Bitcoin previously bounced back above $83,000. A confirmed close below this support could trigger a deeper correction toward $74,000—a nearly 15% drop from current prices—before potentially continuing downward to Jin’s predicted $52,000 level.
The price of homes isn't going up; USD is going down. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/2WbRawa0Lk
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) April 12, 2025
Trump’s Tariff Tornado
The primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s volatility has been President Trump’s recent trade policies. The tariffs, dubbed “Liberation Day” measures by the administration, sparked immediate market turbulence, with the crypto market seeing $293 million in long positions and $220 million in short positions liquidated within 24 hours of the announcement.
On April 9, Trump issued a 90-day pause on nearly all previously announced “reciprocal tariffs,” maintaining only a baseline 10% tariff on all countries besides China, which faces a 125% tariff. This partial reprieve prompted Bitcoin’s recovery above $83,000, but underlying concerns remain.
“The introduction of tariffs could slow the U.S. economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary stance,” Jin explained. “The slowdown in the US economy due to new tariffs may push the Federal Reserve to resume the cycle of interest rate cuts.”
Digital Gold Losing Its Luster?
Historically, Bitcoin has been touted as “digital gold”—a hedge against economic uncertainty. However, this narrative may be unraveling as the cryptocurrency increasingly correlates with traditional markets during periods of turmoil.
“In its current state, the market is easily manipulated—this carries the threat of new disappointments for retail and institutional investors, which will lead to a further increase in the correlation between Bitcoin and gold,” Jin warned. “This will call into question the status of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset.”
Maksym Sakharov, Co-Founder of decentralized on-chain bank WeFi, adds another layer of complexity: “The current markets are experiencing headwinds as a result of the tariffs imposed by the US administration and retaliatory measures from trading partners.” He also points to a looming fiscal debate in Washington over the federal budget and debt ceiling, which could exacerbate market jitters if unresolved.
Not All Doom and Gloom
Despite the bearish predictions, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has doubled down on the firm’s prediction that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, as reported by CoinTelegraph.
Hougan suggests that Trump’s policies could actually benefit Bitcoin, as the administration “wants a weaker dollar, even if it means ending its role as the world’s reserve currency.” He notes that historically, dollar weakness correlates with Bitcoin strength.
“Dollar down equals Bitcoin up,” Hougan stated. “The world will move from a single reserve currency to a more fractured reserve system, with hard money like Bitcoin and gold playing a bigger role than it does today.”
As of Saturday, April 12, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $81,700, up 7.5% over the past 24 hours but still down approximately 32% from its January 20 all-time high—a correction in line with previous bull market cycles.
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